When the Cubs acquired Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker this offseason they made a big move to add to their lineup. But the cost of the trade has people scratching their heads all over baseball. Along with infielder Isaac Paredes and reliever Hayden Wesneski—both big league veterans—the Cubs gave up Cam Smith, their first round pick from last year and a Top 100 MLB prospect.
Tucker is a talented slugger but the risk of this trade is huge. At 28 years old Tucker is an impending free agent unless he signs an extension with the Cubs. And now with Cam Smith in the picture the stakes are even higher for Chicago.
Houston’s Decision Throws a Wrench in the Plans
The Cubs trading Cam Smith looks even worse after news broke that he’ll be on Houston’s Opening Day roster. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Smith is the third fastest player in MLB history to make an Opening Day roster after being drafted, based on games played in the minors.
Smith showed his stuff in spring training hitting .313. He arrives at a good time for the Astros who are looking to fill the void left by Alex Bregman’s departure to the Boston Red Sox.
For the Cubs this hurts. They traded away a highly touted prospect and lost a player who could have been at Wrigley Field as soon as this summer—all for a player who might leave after this season.
What the Cubs Gave Up?
The Cubs gave up a lot to get Tucker. Among the players sent to Houston were:
- Isaac Paredes: A major league infielder.
- Hayden Wesneski: A big league reliever.
- Cam Smith: The Cubs’ first round pick from last year and a Top 100 MLB prospect.
At the time, this seemed like a fair price for a middle of the order bat. But there was one big problem: Tucker is a free agent at the end of 2025 unless he signs an extension with the Cubs.
Where Does This Leave the Cubs?
For the Cubs, the stakes have never been higher. Trading away a potential future star like Cam Smith for a rental player—even one as talented as Kyle Tucker—is a gamble. And now, with Smith already contributing at the MLB level, the pressure is on to get maximum value out of Tucker this season.
Tucker’s Leverage Increases
If Tucker keeps hitting like he always does, his impending free agency gives him a lot of leverage to demand a big extension from the Cubs. As the centerpiece of the offense after the trade of Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees, Tucker’s bat is key to the Cubs being competitive in the NL Central.
But if Tucker underperforms or gets hurt, the Cubs are in trouble—trading away assets without getting long term stability.
Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance
The Cubs haven’t made the playoffs in two years and despite being in a weak division, they have no margin for error. Their poor start in the Tokyo Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (losing both games) hasn’t helped ease the concerns about their season.
Their next test is against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday, March 27, 9 PM CDT. Tucker’s performance in these early games will be huge—not just for the team but for proving the trade was worth the cost.
Where Does This Leave the Cubs?
The Cubs are in a tough spot. Trading for Tucker was supposed to boost the offense and get them back in the playoffs. But with Cam Smith emerging in Houston, the pressure is on to not let Tucker walk as a free agent.
If Tucker has a big season and helps the Cubs get back to the playoffs, the trade will be seen as a success—even at the cost of a top prospect. But if Tucker leaves after this year and Smith continues to shine in Houston, the deal will haunt the Cubs for years to come.
